Imagining a Centralised Ethereum
2013
A small team of devs, tireless refines their implementation of a decentralised network that runs a virtual computer. They need to show something to the VCs or this startup is dead in the water.
2016
It’s early days. The Ethereum Corp subreddit has a few hundred followers, and their linkedIn a few thousand.
It’s a promising company. Not immediately obvious why, but they have a product and just enough interest to keep the lights on. It was a rocky financial ride. To weather a long development cycle the Ethereum corporation was public floated and large portions of the company were sold off at 2 cents a share.
Vitalik was ousted. Paid handsomely for his contribution, but the board needed someone experienced. Not some internet magazine writer. They got a guy from Pepsi.
The Ethereum main-net wasn’t what they thought it was going to be, and it took a little longer than they expected, but no one really gave a shit.
2019
Large businesses, community foundations and even the local library. The Ethereum Corporation approached trusted organisations and invited them to run nodes for a portion of the network fee. Registered companies had to apply for a special license.
The network is centralised. No one cares. Apps are released that use Ethereum for it’s convenience as a development tool. The WordPress widget is a great source of revenue. Their shares are worth nearly 3 cents now and almost 100 people came to Devcon 2.
2022
Ethereum is a successful payment platform. The elaborate escrow and smart contracts have made all kinds of apps possible. Online payments, investing apps, secure sign in. One day there were electric scooters you could rent on the sidewalk, the next, you could buy electricity, on your phone, from your neighbour’s roof. No one really thought too much about it.
A 51% attack was never really considered or spoken about. It was silly to even consider. No one had ever heard of an Ethereum ASICs, scalabilty or a fork. Ethereum was just another tech that added to a larger ecosystem.
2025
As a PR stunt Ethereum decided to outsource running nodes. There were strict guidelines but participants handled the bureaucracy in exchange for a percent of the network fee.
The Ethereum node was a black box that came with a guy who did a thing with a blue cable.
The world sure is changing fast. Ethereum is a trending technology for backend devs. Wikipedia says it powers about 13% of the internet.
The 750 nodes are capable of 2500000 tps.
The subreddit has 10,000 subscribers.
Still far from dinner time conversation. A way of the radar for anyone not working in IT, but blockchain is as significant internet protocol.
The average person feels no particular way about Ethereum or understands how it affects their life, but chances are they use it everyday, without even knowing it.
Cryptocurrencies built on Ethereum are used in stores locally and to send money around the world. It’s hasn’t ushered in a financial revolution among the unbanking but smart phone banking has doubled in popularity in the 2020s. Most of the growth has been in Asia and Africa.
Slowly, Ethereum has become one of the most successful companies in the world. Remarkably, it employs only 3000 people and recruits the best and brightest minds from universities.
They gross billions in revenue from fees micro-transactions, subscriptions and payment plans.
The Ethereum Labs incubator accelerator consistently pumps out billion dollar companies. They are even talking about working on autonomous cars or vapes.
When stores first started to accept cryptocurrency, it caused tension. Several nations tightened the reigns. In the rich countries where people make the best decisions banks slowly intergrated Ethereum. It wasn’t long before people were being paid in Ethereum if they knew it or not.
Through an elaborate collaboration of blockchain and traditional services the onramp was assimilated.
People lived their lives on chain.
Bank account to internet dapp in a fraction of a second.
2028
Accredited investors and corporate partnerships. Ethereum is in with the big bois now. AWS and Microsoft are only too eager run Ethereum for them, in exchange for dividends and network fees.
Data is sold to the highest bidder. Adsense money is immutable. The tokenization of attention is reinforced with actual tokens.
The internet changes. Content gets better. Occasionally, you might sign a transaction to stream a video. and you have a balance in your browser, but that’s just Ethereum. General computer literacy is improving, and people have learnt this technology the same as they learn’t to interact with all the others that came before.
2030
People’s spending is tracked and shared. Blockchain data becomes Ethereum’s largest revenue source.
Ethereum partners with government agencies. Welfare gets faster and cheaper. Public transport costs half one day.
A bunch of people lose their jobs.
There is minor backlash. A loud minority complains about the automatically billed city parking and robot cop issuing fines for jay walking at 2am.
Australia in particular cracks down hard on lawlessness with ridiculous fines for public intoxication, smoking and speeding.
Luckily It’s never more than people will tolerate.
2128
Everyone is dead.
